Israel Strikes Tehran — Sensex Surges, Oil Below $100, Iran Deal in Talks
Israel Strikes Tehran — Sensex Surges, Oil Below $100, Iran Deal in Talks
Israel hit 50 targets in Tehran on Wednesday — IRGC buildings, missile storage, gas facilities. Iran fired back at Israel and US bases. And yet, Sensex surged 1,640 points and oil fell below $100. The reason: Trump says a 15-point peace plan is on the table. Here is what is real and what is noise.
Bombs falling in Tehran. Markets rising in Mumbai. Here is why both are true.
On Wednesday morning, two completely different stories were running at the same time. In Tehran, Israel was hitting 50 separate targets — IRGC intelligence buildings, ballistic missile storage facilities, government offices, gas facilities in Isfahan and a gas pressure station on Kaveh Street. At least 12 people were killed and 28 wounded, according to Al Jazeera. Iranian air defence systems scrambled. Rescuers dug through rubble in a struck residential area in northern Tehran.
In Mumbai, the Sensex was up 1,640 points by 2 PM. All sectors were green. OMCs led gains. HDFC Bank rose over 3%. The Nifty MidCap and SmallCap indices were both up nearly 2.5%. So why are Indian markets rising on a day Israel is bombing Tehran?
The answer is Brent crude, which fell below $100 per barrel on Wednesday — the first time since the early days of the war. And it fell because Trump told reporters at the White House that the US was in "negotiations" with Iran and that Iranians "want to reach a deal very badly." Markets chose to believe the peace story, not the bombs story. Whether that is the right call, nobody knows yet.
“We are talking to the right people in Iran. They want to reach a deal very badly. Iran means business.”
US President Donald Trump — White House, 25 March 2026 — as Israeli strikes continued in Tehran
Iran's foreign ministry said the opposite — there are no direct talks, Trump's claims are meant to manipulate oil prices and buy time while more US troops arrive. Parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf called it "fake news." The IRGC called Trump's statements a "big lie." And yet — and this matters — Iran separately told the UN that non-hostile ships may transit Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities. That is not the language of a country planning to keep the strait shut forever. Something is moving, even if nobody will admit it publicly.
What Israel actually hit in Iran today
The IDF said it completed "a wave of extensive strikes targeting production sites" across Iran. They were not specific about locations in their public statement, but Iranian media and state news agencies filled in the picture.
Iran retaliated the same day. Revolutionary Guards launched strikes at Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona in Israel, and at US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. Kuwait said alarms went off 12 to 13 times overnight. Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province air defences intercepted 19 drones in separate attacks. Bahrain and UAE also reported missile and drone attacks. The war is no longer just US-Israel versus Iran — it has spread into a full Gulf regional conflict.
Sensex up 1,640. Rupee at 93.37. Brent below $100. Here is what moved.
Three things drove Indian markets higher on Wednesday, and none of them were the actual military situation on the ground. For Gulf workers sending money home, check live SAR to INR rates and AED to INR rates as the rupee and oil move together today.
First: Brent below $100. Lower oil is the single biggest positive for India. It reduces the import bill, takes pressure off the rupee, eases inflation fears and improves the earnings outlook for almost every company that uses fuel as an input. OMC stocks — BPCL, HPCL, IOC — led Wednesday's gains as a result.
Second: Indian refiners bought Russian oil. Business Standard reported that Indian refiners have bought approximately 60 million barrels of Russian crude for delivery next month — giving India a lower-cost alternative supply that bypasses the Hormuz issue entirely. This is a significant buffer. It means India is not completely at the mercy of Hormuz remaining open.
Third: Gold and Silver ETFs. Even as equity markets rose, buyers returned to gold and silver ETFs — up 6% in early trade — on de-escalation hopes. The RBI intervened in the forex market to support the rupee as heavy NDF-related dollar demand put pressure on INR despite oil's fall. The rupee settled around 93.37, recovering from its record low of 93.97 hit on Monday.
Friday deadline: Trump's 5-day pause expires Friday. If no ceasefire framework emerges by then and Trump re-issues military threats, oil will spike and markets will fall again. This is the single most important date this week.
Hormuz traffic: Iran said non-hostile ships may transit with coordination. But commercial tanker insurers have not returned. The first tanker to successfully transit without Iranian escort will be a real signal.
Pakistan talks: PM Shehbaz Sharif offered to host US-Iran talks. The US has "agreed in principle" per Pakistani officials, but Iran has not confirmed. If Islamabad talks get confirmed, that is a genuine ceasefire signal worth watching. Check live USD/INR and oil rates at FX Rate Live.
Reliance Industries bought 5 million barrels of Iranian crude at a significant discount, News24 reported. India has not formally joined the conflict, maintains open diplomatic channels with Tehran, and is one of the few large economies still able to buy Iranian oil. This gives India a supply cushion that most of its Asian competitors — Japan, South Korea — simply do not have right now. Combined with 60 million barrels of Russian oil bought for next month, India's near-term supply position is more stable than the war headlines suggest. Investors tracking Bitcoin and crypto alongside war volatility can check BTC to USD live rates at FX Rate Live.
Your questions, answered directly
This article is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial or investment advice. Market figures quoted are intraday and subject to change. Exchange rates and geopolitical situations move rapidly — always verify current rates at FX Rate Live. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing. © 2026 FX Rate Live.
Comments
Post a Comment